How it works.

The idea

A trader with a public record is already priced informally: in who copies them and in who quietly stops. Peers Economy turns that into a contract with a settlement rule.

The instrument is a binary option. One side pays 1 USDG per share, the other pays nothing, and a single number measured at two moments decides which. The subject is an account, never an asset: the question is whether the account ends the window ahead of where it started.

Getting started

Connect an EVM wallet and switch to Robinhood Chain (chain id 4663). The site adds the network for you. Stakes are USDG; keep a little ETH for network fees.

Pick an account on Markets, choose the 24h or 7d window, size the ticket and confirm in your wallet. Positions appear in Portfolio.

What settles a market

Every market settles on cumulative account PnL: a signed dollar figure for how far ahead or behind an account is across its whole history.

Where the number comes from

A keeper reads a public perpetuals venue's open account API on a fixed cadence. Each read stores when it happened, where it came from and every listed account with its PnL, and the whole read is hashed.

The live read is served at /api/board, with its timestamp and hash. A failed read is recorded as a gap and never back-filled.

Readings and the median rule

Each end of a market is the median of the 3 readings nearest that moment, never a single print. A reading more than 20 minutes from the moment being valued is not eligible. Fewer than 3 eligible readings at either end voids the market.

strike  = median(3 readings nearest open)
settle  = median(3 readings nearest close)
winner  = settle > strike ? call : put

The inequality is strict: a window that ends exactly where it began resolves to the put.

How the odds open

An even opening split claims both sides are equally likely, which the record usually contradicts. The opening price is the model's probability that cumulative PnL is higher at the close.

PnL is treated as a walk with drift μ and per-step volatility σ, estimated from the last 30 days of readings. Over n steps the probability is P = F(μ√n / σ), where F is a Student-t distribution with four degrees of freedom. Fat tails pull the answer toward even, the conservative direction for a book that quotes both sides. Prices are clamped to 15 to 85 cents.

How the price moves

Each market is a fixed-product pool holding a reserve of each outcome. Collateral mints one call and one put, which together are always worth exactly 1. A purchase withdraws the wanted side, sized so the product of the reserves is unchanged.

Price is the ratio between reserves, so price and implied probability are the same number: a call at 43 cents is the book saying 43 percent. Seeded depth is 25,000 per market. A fill more than 5 cents from the quote is refused.

What you get paid

A winning share redeems for exactly 1 USDG; a losing share is worth nothing. The fee is 2% of winnings only, taken at redemption. A losing position pays no fee.

Fee split: 40% to $PEERS buyback and burn, 40% to $PEERS holders, 10% to liquidity, 10% to the listed account's escrow.

When a market voids

A void refunds every position at cost. It is the right outcome whenever the evidence cannot support a settlement: a gap in readings, a stale reading at either end, or an account that leaves the board.

If you are a listed account

10% of every fee on your markets accrues in escrow against your account from the first trade. Claim it with one signature from the wallet that owns the account.

To leave, sign once from the same wallet. Every open market on your account voids and each position is refunded at cost.

Parameters

Risk and settlement terms

Positions are binary and can lose the full stake. Balances are a ledger of USDG stakes settled by the rules on this page; settlement follows the published readings and may not be instant. Nothing here is investment advice. Peers Economy is independent and not affiliated with any listed account or with the venue it reads.